MLB hit probability engine
Best Bet hit rate · last 15 days
21 of 38 curated Best Bets hit
A calibrated probability model curates a handful of MLB Best Bets every day. Every prediction is logged, every outcome is graded, and every miss is published. No retroactive edits. No cherry-picking.
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★ The Record
Every Best Bet since launch, graded against the box score. The chart below is the live audit, dot by dot.
Today's board · locked 11 AM ET
You already saw the No.1 ranked pick above, unblurred. The rest of the ranking sits behind a free account. No credit card required.
Hit%
◆ The Pipeline
Daily lineup ingestion
Confirmed lineups pulled from the MLB Stats API 3 hours before first pitch. Pitcher-batter matchups built for every slot in every game.
◆ Plans
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Today · No.1 pick
Locked 11 AM ET
Kansas City Royals · vs Imai
Yesterday · graded
Thu, Jun 11 · Best Bet
Jac Caglianone
Called at 59% · graded in public
✓ HIT
Live engine output · the same data subscribers see
Green dots ≥ 50% · Orange < 50%
All-time Best Bet
61.3%
152/248
Slate hit rate
57.5%
15,241 predictions
Days tracked
64
zero retroactive edits
Hit%
Hit%
14 more picks · all signals · all chips
Free account unlocks the full board.
Full player rankings with the Signal Pulse, factor breakdown, CI confidence, and live in-game results.
Per-PA hit probability
Each at-bat scored against four families of signal: player quality, matchup, context, and opportunity. Each pulls the probability up or down by a small amount.
Edge Score, 0-100
The lifts roll up into a confidence-weighted score that ranks the slate. The top of the distribution is asymptotic, so the very best picks never tie at the ceiling. Top-ranked become Best Bets.
Recalibrated daily, audited publicly
Raw output is re-fit nightly against actual outcomes, and only deployed if it measurably improves accuracy. Every prediction is logged with every outcome.
★ The output · four tiers, S through C
Elite
Score 80+
Top-tier edge today - highest hit probability in the model
Strong
Score 65–79
Clear advantage - elevated hit probability above MLB avg
Value
Score 50–64
Modest edge - worth including but not a lock
Neutral
Score <50
No significant edge - model sees no clear advantage